As China’s domestic macadamia market shifts towards processed goods, it needs to carefully manage raw product prices with its fiercely competitive consumer snack market. Chinese buyers may also feel justified in their NIS price stance as their inventory positions are improved against this time last year after higher domestic production in Q4 2024 and softer consumer spending over the country’s New Year’s celebration. While time is still needed to see the impact of these developments on NIS prices looking ahead, it could mean the further evolution of China as a kernel market for the world’s suppliers.
Estimations of 2025 supply have started to come in and both Australia and South Africa are positive about the growth in production in the year ahead. However, Standard Bank reports that extreme heat experienced in South Africa may impact nut size and weight.